Despite the uncertainty surrounding health care reform under the upcoming Trump administration, health law experts project that the transition to value-based payments and further development of electronic health record (EHR) systems will be a constant in the coming years. Four of Avalere Health’s senior vice presidents offered their opinions during the 2017 Healthcare Industry Outlook webinar, making educated guesses about what upcoming changes the industry may see.
What will change?
The webinar started with the topic on everyone’s mind: what will happen to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA)? Broadly, the presenters expect that federal spending on health care will be capped and states will be granted more flexibility in designing their Medicaid programs. Reduction of regulations to encourage the private sector to provide a range of products in a competitive market is also to be expected.
The likelihood of repeal was discussed for several different ACA sections. The most likely to be repealed were the individual and employer mandates, subsidies, industry taxes, Medicare tax for high earners, and cuts to disproportionate share hospitals. Certain reforms, like protection for pre-existing coverage, drug related provisions, and changes to Medicare Advantage and Medicaid payment provisions are considered likely to remain. Subjects likely to be up for serious debate are Medicaid expansion, the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation (CMMI), essential health benefits, and the preventive services coverage requirement.
The focus on quality and value in health care is not expected to waver during the new administration. In light of significant regulatory and policy barriers, providers are unable to establish outcome-based contracts and create more innovative payment arrangements. More flexibility in the ability to establish and agree on value between parties is expected to be a policy pressure point.
The value discussion typically focuses on provider performance, but the presenters noted that drugs are an important value consideration, especially in light of rising costs. The traditional approach to determining drug value is expected to evolve, as frameworks had previously been established based on clinical benefit, toxicity, and product cost, which ignored patient considerations and relied too much on data from limited populations. In addition to incorporating more real world data, drug value frameworks have begun to focus on not only on health outcomes, but patient experiences and financial considerations during treatment.
Although “virtually every hospital” is using some sort of EHR system, interoperability continues to be a sticking point. In the near future, the ability to more effectively use, share, and interact with data is expected to improve. Continued advancements in studying data is also expected to change the way providers practice, including big advances in population health.